Thursday 28th of March 2024
 

Sales Forecasting Based on ERP System through Delphi, fuzzy Clustering and Back-Propagation Neural Networks with adaptive learning rate


Attariuas Hicham, Bouhorma Mohammed and El Fallahi Abdellah

In recent years, there has been a strong tendency by companies to use centralized management systems like Enterprise resource planning (ERP). ERP systems offer a comprehensive and simplified process managements and extensive functional coverage. Sales management module is an important element business management of ERP. This paper describes an intelligent hybrid sales forecasting system ERP-FCBPN sales forecast based on architecture of ERP through Delphi, fuzzy clustering and Back-propagation (BP) Neural Networks with adaptive learning rate (FCBPN). The proposed approach is composed of three stages: (1) Stage of data collection: Data collection will be implemented from the fields (attributes) existing at the interfaces (Tables the database) of the ERP. Collection of Key factors that influence sales be made using the Delphi method; (2) Stage of Data preprocessing: Winter€™s Exponential Smoothing method will be utilized to take the trend effect into consideration. (3) Stage of learning by FCBPN: We use hybrid sales forecasting system based on Delphi, fuzzy clustering and Back-propagation (BP) Neural Networks with adaptive learning rate (FCBPN). The data for this study come from an industrial company that manufactures packaging. Experimental results show that the proposed model outperforms the previous and traditional approaches. Therefore, it is a very promising solution for industrial forecasting.

Keywords: Enterprise Resource Planning, Sales forecasting, fuzzy clustering, fuzzy system, back propagation network, Hybrid intelligence approach

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ABOUT THE AUTHORS

Attariuas Hicham
Attariuas Hicham received the computer engineer degree in 2009 from ENSAIS national school of computer science and systems analysis in Rabat, Morocco. Currently, he is a PhD Student in Computer Science. Current research interests: fuzzy system, intelligence system, bac-propagation network, genetic intelligent system.

Bouhorma Mohammed
Bouhorma Mohammed received the the PhD degree in Telecommunications and Computer Engineering. He is a Professor of Telecommunications and Computer Engineering in Abdelmalek Essaadi University. He has been a member of the Organizing and the Scientific Committees of several symposia and conferences dealing with Intelligent system, Mobile Networks, Telecommunications technologies.

El Fallahi Abdellah
received the the PhD degree in neural systems in 2008 from Valencia University, Spain. He is Professor in the logistics and transport department at the National School of applied sciences.His teaching is devoted to the logistics and transport, Integer and Linear Programming in Mathematics and heuristics .His research interest focuses on the development of meta-heuristics for hard optimization problems.


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