Sunday 21st of January 2018

ARMA (Autoregressive Moving Average) Model for Prediction of Rainfall in Regency of Semarang - Central Java - Republic of Indonesia

Adi Nugroho and Bistok Hasiholan Simanjuntak

Water is the main factor in determining the success of the activities of food crops, horticulture, and plantation. The main source of the water for agriculture and plantation comes from rainfall. This condition also occurs in regency of Semarang, Central Java, Indonesia. Therefore rainfall prediction will play an important role in the success of the activities. Univariate time series model of ARMA (Autoregressive Moving Average) can be used to predict it in the future. Data used in the study are taken on a monthly basis during the period from 2001 to 2013. The results showed that the prediction is quite accurate using method of ARMA in the study area.

Keywords: Rainfall Prediction, ARMA, Univariate Time Series

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Adi Nugroho
Adi Nugroho earned a Bachelor of Engineering (ST) of Geological Engineering - Institute of Technology Bandung (ITB) in Republic of Indonesia in 1993. He also earned a Masters in Management Information Systems from the Gunadarma University in Jakarta, Republic of Indonesia, in 2002. Currently he is trying to complete his doctoral studies in Computer Science at the PhD Program, Gadjah Mada University in Republic of Indonesia and a career as a lecturer in the Faculty of Information Technology Satya Wacana Christian University, in Salatiga, Central Java, Republic of Indonesia.

Bistok Hasiholan Simanjuntak
Bistok Hasiholan Simanjuntak earned a Bachelor of Engineering (Ir) of the Faculty of Agriculture Satya Wacana Christian University in Salatiga, Republic of Indonesia, in 1989. Master's degree (Master of Science) degree in Soil Science obtained from Bogor Agricultural University in Republic of Indonesia (1997) and his PhD in Soil Science is obtained from Brawijaya University in Malang, Republic of Indonesia (2007) . Currently he is a faculty member in the College of Agriculture and Business Satya Wacana Christian University in Salatiga, Central Java, Republic of Indonesia. Areas of expertise and areas of research is in the field of Land and Water Management.

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