Application of Quantitative Models, MNLR and ANN in Short Term Forecasting of Ship Data
Forecasting has been the trouble-free way for the port authorities to derive the future expected values of service time of Bulk cargo ships handled at ports of South India. The short term forecasting could be an effective tool for estimating the resource requirements of recurring ships of similar tonnage and Cargo. Forecasting the arrival data related to port based ship operations customarily done using the standard algorithms and assumptions. The regular forecasting methods were decomposition, smoothing, and Box-Jenkins procedures. The focus was on forecasting was on the inherent errors in any forecasting procedure and make the inevitable errors as smallest as possible and accurate adequate to meet the requirements of Managers handling Cargo ships. An attempt has been made to perform short term forecasting using the quantitative models utilizing the time series port data and comparing it with the Multivariate nonlinear regression model and ANN model for their accuracy and reliability
Keywords: Forcasting, Bulkcargo ships, service time, artificial neural network technique, Multivariate nonlinear regression model, Quantitative model, Performance accuracy
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ABOUT THE AUTHORS
P.Oliver Jayaprakash
P.OLIVER JAYAPRAKASH is at present Assistant professor in Civil engineering department, Mepco schlenk engineering college, sivakasi, Tamilnadu. India. His field of interest is Soft computing applications in Freight logistics planning. He is currently pursuing his PhD programme at Anna University,Chennai under Dr.K.Gunasekaran.
K. Gunasekaran
Dr.K.GUNASEKARAN is currently working as an Associate professor in Transportation engg. division of Anna University,Chennai,India. His research interests includes Simulation,Analysis and modeling of Accidents and its prevention, GPS application in Traffic analysis and management.He has published several research articles in various Journals and conferences.
P.Oliver Jayaprakash
P.OLIVER JAYAPRAKASH is at present Assistant professor in Civil engineering department, Mepco schlenk engineering college, sivakasi, Tamilnadu. India. His field of interest is Soft computing applications in Freight logistics planning. He is currently pursuing his PhD programme at Anna University,Chennai under Dr.K.Gunasekaran.
K. Gunasekaran
Dr.K.GUNASEKARAN is currently working as an Associate professor in Transportation engg. division of Anna University,Chennai,India. His research interests includes Simulation,Analysis and modeling of Accidents and its prevention, GPS application in Traffic analysis and management.He has published several research articles in various Journals and conferences.
